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The legacy of the Northern Irish 'Troubles' on Disability Rolls

Journal: Social Science & Medicine

Date: 2025

Author: Anne Devlin ; Declan French ; Duncan McVicar

Abstract:
Disability benefit recipiency rates have been persistently higher in Northern Ireland (NI) than the rest of the UK for decades. Receipt of Disability Living Allowance (DLA), a social security payment designed to cover the additional costs of living with a disability, was proportionally around twice as high in NI compared to the rest of the UK at its 2016 peak. This paper uses data from the Northern Ireland Cohort of Longitudinal Ageing survey to examine whether one potential contributory factor, exposure to the conflict, can explain variations in DLA receipt among older working-age people in Northern Ireland. Conflict-related fatality rates at the area level are used to account for potential endogeneity in reporting past exposure to trauma. While most of the NI population in the age bracket examined (50-64 years) were exposed to the conflict in some way, more intense exposure to the conflict is found to increase the likelihood of DLA receipt by 21 percentage points. We also find a substantial impact on mental ill health. This research has significant policy ramifications both in NI but also across the UK at a time of particular interest in disability benefit receipt as well as contributing to the wider post-conflict literature.

Link: Google Scholar

Background and Context

The Northern Ireland Conflict

The 'Troubles' (1968-1998) was a thirty-year civil conflict that killed over 3,700 people and injured at least 47,000 in Northern Ireland.

The Disability Benefit Gap

Receipt of Disability Living Allowance (DLA) in Northern Ireland was proportionally around twice as high as in England at its 2016 peak.

Research Approach

The study uses NICOLA survey data from 2,524 adults aged 50-64 combined with conflict fatality rates as instrumental variables to establish causality.

DLA/PIP Receipt Rates Were Dramatically Higher in Northern Ireland Than All English Regions

  • This chart compares disability benefit receipt rates across Northern Ireland and English regions for 50-64 year-olds.
  • Northern Ireland had 17% DLA/PIP receipt compared to just 6% for England overall in 2014/15.
  • Even the highest English regions (East Midlands, North East at 10%) were significantly below Northern Ireland's rate.

Most of the Population Experienced Conflict-Related Trauma During the Troubles

  • The NICOLA survey asked respondents about specific conflict events they experienced during the Troubles period.
  • Over half witnessed rioting (57%), bomb explosions (55%), or knew someone killed (53%) during the conflict.
  • 10% were forced to leave their homes due to attack, intimidation, threats or harassment during the conflict.

Conflict Exposure Creates a Causal Pathway to Disability Benefit Receipt

Troubles Exposure Health Impacts DLA Receipt 1968-1998 Mental & Physical 2014-2016 Instrumental Variables Methodology Establishes Causal Link
  • The study uses fatality rates at the local area level to instrument for self-reported conflict exposure.
  • This methodology addresses potential biases from subjective reporting and establishes a causal rather than correlational link.
  • The pathway shows how historical conflict exposure leads to health deterioration and ultimately disability benefit receipt decades later.

Troubles Exposure Increased DLA Receipt Likelihood by 21 Percentage Points

  • The bivariate probit model estimates the causal impact of conflict exposure on DLA receipt and health outcomes.
  • Personal exposure to the Troubles increased DLA receipt probability by 21 percentage points—explaining about one-third of the NI-England gap.
  • Mental ill-health was the most strongly affected health outcome, with a 38 percentage point increase in diagnosis probability.

Conflict Explains About One-Third of the NI-England Disability Gap

Decomposition of NI-England DLA Gap Total Gap: 9 Percentage Points ~33% Troubles ~67% Other Factors Conflict Exposure Deprivation, Health System NI: 17% DLA rate England: 8% DLA rate
  • The 21 percentage point increase from Troubles exposure accounts for roughly one-third of the 9 point gap between NI and England.
  • Adjusting for Troubles impact would reduce the NI DLA rate from 17% to approximately 15%, still above England.
  • The remaining gap is likely explained by higher deprivation, deindustrialization, and other socioeconomic factors in Northern Ireland.

Contribution and Implications

  • This study provides the first causal evidence linking conflict exposure to disability benefit receipt in a developed economy.
  • Findings demonstrate Northern Ireland requires place-specific policy consideration in UK-wide welfare reform discussions.
  • Mental health services investment may help reduce long-term disability rates stemming from historical conflict trauma.
  • The research highlights the need for additional funding to support communities still affected by the Troubles legacy.
  • Results suggest interventions to mitigate intergenerational trauma transmission could reduce future disability benefit dependency.

Data Sources

  • Chart 1 (Regional DLA/PIP Rates): Constructed using data from Table 1 showing self-reported disability rates for NI and English regions, 50-64 year-olds, 2014/15.
  • Chart 2 (Troubles Events): Constructed using proportion data from Table 3 showing specific conflict-related events experienced by NICOLA respondents.
  • SVG 1 (Causal Pathway): Conceptual diagram based on the instrumental variables methodology described in Section 3 of the article.
  • Chart 3 (Impact Estimates): Constructed using marginal effects from Tables 4 (21pp personal), 5 (12pp community), and 6 (38pp mental health, 33pp cancer).
  • SVG 2 (Gap Decomposition): Based on calculations from the article showing 21pp impact against 9pp NI-England gap (17% vs 8% from Table 1).