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Work disability and the Northern Irish Troubles

Journal: Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics

Date: 2021

Author: Declan French, Sharon Cruise

Abstract:
The literature on the long-run effects of war has largely neglected the labour market implications of permanent illness or injury from conflict among the civilian population. From 1969 to 1998, Northern Ireland experienced a violent ethnopolitical conflict characterised by terrorist bombing campaigns, sectarian killings and armed forces patrolling the streets. The consequences of this period for current high work disability rates are disputed by the main political parties. We address this question using a new high-quality dataset. Potential endogeneity and reverse causation issues are addressed using the intensity of conflict-related deaths as instruments. We find clear evidence that conflict has increased work disability by 9.0 percentage points. The only doctor-diagnosed medical condition mediating this effect is mental ill-health. It is timely to consider the likely enduring economic consequences of a return to violence in the context of the potentially destabilising effects of Brexit.

Link: Google Scholar

Background and Context

Historical Context

From 1969 to 1998, Northern Ireland experienced a violent ethnopolitical conflict known as 'the Troubles' characterized by terrorist bombing campaigns, sectarian killings and armed forces patrolling the streets.

Research Focus

This study examines how exposure to this conflict has impacted current work disability rates among civilians aged 50-64, who were between 4-19 years old when the Troubles began.

Methodology

Using data from the Northern Ireland Cohort for the Longitudinal Study of Ageing (NICOLA) and historical records of conflict-related fatalities, researchers analyzed how conflict exposure affected work disability through various health conditions.

Impact of Troubles on Work Limitation Severity

  • 59% of respondents report no work limitations, while 12% report severe or extreme limitations
  • This matches the rate of disability benefit claims in the general population
  • Shows the current distribution of work disability severity in the studied population

Medical Conditions Associated with Work Limitation

  • 89% of those with extreme work limitations report being in pain
  • Mental health conditions affect 44% of those with extreme work limitations
  • Shows the prevalence of various medical conditions among those most severely impacted

Experience of Conflict Events During the Troubles

  • Over half of respondents witnessed riots (55%) and bomb explosions (54%)
  • 51% knew someone who was killed during the conflict
  • Demonstrates the widespread exposure to conflict-related trauma

Total Economic Impact of Conflict-Related Work Disability

  • Total economic cost estimated at £7.0 billion for current 50-64 age cohort
  • £5.8 billion in lost earnings
  • £1.2 billion in disability benefit payments

Contribution and Implications

  • First comprehensive study examining long-term impact of civil conflict on civilian work disability
  • Shows that conflict exposure increased work disability by 27.7 percentage points
  • Mental health conditions are the primary pathway through which conflict impacts work capability
  • Findings have important implications for post-conflict healthcare provision and disability policy

Data Sources

  • Work Limitation Chart: Based on Table 1 descriptive statistics
  • Medical Conditions Chart: Based on Table 2 proportions by work limitation severity
  • Experience Chart: Based on Table 3 summary statistics
  • Medical Effects Chart: Based on Table 7 effect sizes
  • Economic Impact Chart: Based on calculations reported in Results section